India-Pakistan Peace Process: The Revived Dialogue
October 10 - 11, 2011, Dubai
Organized by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES)
Title: CHINA’S GROWING ROLE IN GILGIT-BALTISTAN IMPACTS INDO-PAK CBMs
By Senge Hasnan Sering of Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies
October 11, 2011
Nature of China’s Involvement
Expressways and railroads: Benefits of transportation networks for China, Pakistan
Mega dams on the Indus River: Diamer, Bonji, Haramosh
China specific economic and industrial zones along the Karakoram Highway: may lead to China towns
Oil and gas pipelines stretching from East Turkestan to Iran,
Telecommunication
Mining projects in the uranium, copper and gold laden valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan
Thousands of Chinese engineering and military personnel stationed in Pakistan controlled Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan
Constitutional Impasse Challenges Pakistani gestures towards China
These strategic and economic developments however do not change the fact that Gilgit-Baltistan is a disputed territory claimed by India; that Pakistan lacks sovereign rights over Gilgit-Baltistan and therefore the eligibility to authorize Chinese military and mining corporations a presence in the region; and that China’s presence in Gilgit-Baltistan is a violation of international agreements, Indo-Pak bilateral agreements as well as Sino-Pak provisional border agreement of 1963.
Local Reaction
Strong opposition from the locals targeting mining activities; fear losing their land and resources to the international corporations
Mass protest by Gilgit-Baltistan Gems Minerals and Metals Association
Fear Chinese and Pakistanis changing local demography; demand reinstating SSR
Disappointed with the Chinese who pretend to support flood relief work and then settle for long term interests like mineral exploration
China an environmental threat in the fragile Karakoram belt – tunnels, dams, mining – compared to Siachen, six glaciers in Hunza Nagar valley impacted…an Indo-Pak working group is needed to assess the damages done by military and economic interventions to these glaciers
Political threats: China occupies Shaksgam, Raskam, Shimshal and Aghil valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan, which were gifted by Pakistan in 1963; the current developments are being followed with suspicion in the region
Those who oppose are arrested: More than two hundred local youth have so far been arrested and many including Babajan Hunzai face torture for resisting Chinese expansionism
Pakistan’s Double Standards viz. a viz. CBMs needs reviewing
Locals are angry because of Pakistan’s double standards on CBMs
Separate policy on cross-LOC trade and transit viz. a viz. Muzaffarabad and Gilgit-Baltistan which needs an immediate review
While China is getting preferential treatment to use Gilgit-Baltistan as transit corridor to reach Gwadar, Iran and Afghanistan, the natives of Gilgit-Baltistan are denied similar access across the line of control which affects local economy and restricts tens of thousands of divided family members to travel to Ladakh and Kashmir valley to meet their relatives; Manzoor Parwana arrested and tortured for demanding resumption of cross-LOC trade and travel
If Pakistan wants India to reduce her troops in Kashmir, then Pakistan and China will have to change their policy of amassing military and para-military personnel in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistani Kashmir
China not neutral on Kashmir anymore: China changed her Kashmir policy during Musharraf era, while parallel CBMs continued: Red carpet reception to Gilgit-Baltistan CM in Beijing; no visas for Indian Kashmiris on Indian passports; India’s hold over Kashmir challenged
Human rights violations: While Ms. Khar was lecturing India on improving human rights and maintaining peace in Kashmir, Pakistani intelligence officials were arresting and torturing political workers in Gilgit-Baltistan. Babajan Hunzai and several dozen political workers arrested, tortured
Along with CBMs resumes recruitment for LeT in Pakistan, there is no guarantee that the CBMs will be uninterrupted and uninterruptable. Pakistan is applying Chinese diplomacy principals of using force and pursue dialogue simultaneously; both deemed compatible and without any distinction by the Chinese
Terrorist organizations are openly functioning in AJK and recently the people of Neelum valley protested against their presence; gives the international community room to talk about Pakistan’s credibility and sincerity viz. a viz. fighting and eliminating terrorism
China’s willingness to cooperate with Jihad-promoting organizations like Jamat-e-Islami, Hurriyat Conference and LeT….Is China a supporter of terrorism?
Indian Reaction
India believes that China’s gains in Gilgit-Baltistan have come at her expense and is therefore aimed at discouraging her constitutional claim over the region.
For India, these interferences in Gilgit-Baltistan are coming from a country which occupies more than 38,000 square kilometers of Aksai Chin in Kashmir; and in recent months, Chinese military have carried out several attacks on the Ladakhi territory in Jammu & Kashmir.
Why China would not want the CBMs to work
Successful CBMs mean increased influence for India in Pakistan and vice versa: That also means Indian influence in Gilgit-Baltistan. This would make China insecure in many ways because:
Relationship with Pakistan is artificial and ad-hoc: No cultural or civilizational connection; purely a military based relationship
No investment in cultural or social sector; only investment is done in military and strategic buildup: who are they preparing Pakistan against?
China lacks the capacity to replace USA; anti-India card played to sustain its military relationship with Pakistan
Issue of control over Aksai-chin, Shaksgam, Raskam, Shimshal and Aghil valleys resurfaces once India and Pakistan solve their disputes, which threatens China’s control over these valleys
India could demand transit rights to Afghanistan via Gilgit-Baltistan which will be unacceptable for China
Afghan-India SPA…If Pakistan chooses to continue and intensify its proxy war in Afghanistan, it will have direct impact on Kashmir CBMs. In the wake of the SPA, Pakistan will be drawn even closer to China and continue to be treated as a pawn in the greater Indo-China conflict;
Given China’s insecurities, Pakistan could continue to act as China’s most favorite force multiplier against India
China drawing benefits from a sustained low intensity Indo-Pak conflict therefore remains a challenge as far as uninterrupted and uninterruptable CBMs are concerned
Can China Deliver?
China’s recent claim over Pakistan as ‘its Israel’ shows their growing interdependency. Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic failures and isolation also provide increasing opportunities for China to influence her national and foreign policy, especially regarding India. So yes, China can disrupt CBMs if the CBMs threaten her interests in South and Central Asia
Suggestions
Kashmir issue should not be used as a tool to slow down the economic growth of a billion and a half people of South and Central Asia.
Rather than becoming the ‘Israel of China', Pakistan should work on strengthening SAARC which can help increase economic interdependency among the regional countries and diffuse resultant political tensions.
